Are Russian Tanks Running Out or Are They Just Being Reused?

The question of whether Russia is running out of armored vehicles and tanks has sparked heated debate during the Ukraine War. While some claim Russia is in a dire situation, others point to evidence indicating an abundance of tanks, albeit not in their best condition. This article explores the evidence and arguments on both sides, offering a balanced overview of the situation.

The Shifting Dynamics of Ukraine's Armed Forces

Ukraine's forces have faced significant challenges in supplying their equipment, leading to a reorganization of their units. The 153rd Mechanized Brigade, for example, has been reclassified as an infantry brigade due to a shortage of infantry fighting vehicles. This move highlights the struggle Ukraine faces in maintaining its armored combat units, a situation that is likely not isolated but has been observed in other Ukrainian brigades as well.

Is Russia Actually Running Out of Tanks?

Despite reports suggesting a shortage, non-aligned Russian sources and experts refute the claims. According to Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, Russia produced 1,500 new T90M3 Proriv tanks in 2022. Additionally, Russia has access to Soviet-era reserves, which include numerous older T-54 and T-55 models. It's important to note that these tanks are not in the best condition, often stripped of valuable components.

Understanding the Inventory and Production Challenges

Russia holds a vast inventory of tanks, but many are stored. To improve these tanks and make them combat-ready, valuable parts were being stripped from them and sold on the black market. This practice has led to a shortage of fully operational tanks on the battlefield. The issue is not a lack of raw materials but a lack of functional combat-ready tanks.

Factory Production and Shortages

Dmitry Medvedev emphasized during his visit to Uralvagonzavod, one of Russia's leading military production facilities, that Russia’s defense production is increasing. However, the profit margin for these facilities is minimal, a product of the Soviet economic legacy where state subscriptions are low. This situation makes it unprofitable to innovate, leading to the continued production of older models.

Uralvagonzavod's Production Capacities and Challenges

According to Russian experts, Uralvagonzavod currently has a production capacity of 200-250 tanks annually. The factory, however, is facing multiple challenges. The assembly line is manual and has limited space, and there are ongoing issues with expanding production facilities. The factory is currently focused on producing T-72B3M tanks, with a few new T-90M tanks also seen in circulation.

Reusing and Modernizing Tanks

Ukraine's success in actively degrading Russian capabilities means that Russia is reusing and modernizing tanks from older models. For instance, the capture of partially destroyed T-72BA tanks in Gdańsk, Poland, highlights the need for Russia to make tactical adjustments. The Defense Ministry might have up to 8,000 tanks stored, including older models that require modernization.

Comparison with Annual Production and Losses

While Russia can produce up to 250 new tanks and modernize up to 600 per year, Ukraine has successfully destroyed around 3,000 Russian tanks to date. This suggests that even with the ability to produce and modernize tanks, the logistics and strategic deployment are challenging. The ongoing loss of tanks is a significant issue, outweighing the production rates in military effectiveness.

Conclusion

While there is no shortage of tanks in the traditional sense, the operational readiness and deployment of these tanks are the primary concerns. Russia is reusing and modernizing its existing inventory to stay competitive, but this approach has limitations. The ongoing war has highlighted the need for a more robust and innovative approach to military production and deployment.