BJP's Potential Lok Sabha Seats Win in Uttar Pradesh: An Analysis and Prediction

As the Indian general elections of 2019 approach, predictions around the BJP's lion's share of seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP) are rife. This article dives into the multifaceted political landscape of UP, providing a detailed analysis of the party's potential success in securing a significant number of Lok Sabha seats.

Introduction and Background

Uttar Pradesh (UP) is one of the most populous and strategically important states in India, and its support has been crucial to the BJP's dominance in national politics under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The state's governor, Yogi Adityanath, a key BJP leader, has been instrumental in swaying public opinion. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is expected to secure a significant number of seats, with predictions ranging from 48 to 54, depending on various socio-political factors.

The Historical Context

Reviewing the results of the 2014 and 2009 general elections provides a historical perspective on voting patterns in UP. In 2014, the BJP won 71 out of 80 seats, a robust performance primarily due to the Ram Janmabhoomi factor and support from the upper-caste Hindu community. In contrast, in 2009, the BJP secured 10 seats, significantly fewer than the 23 seats won by the Samajwadi Party (SP) and 20 seats by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Current Political Climate and Alliances

The upcoming elections are expected to witness a SP-BSP alliance, which could impact the electoral outcomes. Historically, supporters of these parties have shown a tendency to vote based on caste and religion rather than development. This time, however, the scenario is different due to recent socio-political developments. The SP-BSP alliance faces challenges as their supporters may choose to vote for the BJP or other parties, influenced by personality and performance.

Potential Results and Factors Influencing the Election

Based on the historical data, the current political climate, and the potential impact of alliances, the following trends are expected:

BJP: Simeon projects a range of 48 to 54 seats. Factors such as the stability of the government and lack of big Hindu-Muslim riots since 2017 could influence the BJP's performance. SP: The SP is predicted to secure between 12 to 15 seats, significantly fewer than in 2014. The SP's central UP base might see a higher vote share. BSP: The BSP is expected to win around 10 to 12 seats, largely in Dalit-dominated constituencies. INC: The INC is expected to secure 2 to 3 seats, with these likely in family-held constituencies like Amethi, Rayaregal, and Kushinagar.

A key factor influencing the BJP's performance is the softening of Muslim votes, influenced by the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots and the absence of fanatic BJP leaders in the campaign. Additionally, the support from Shia Muslims in East UP could further bolster the BJP's vote share. These factors, combined with the BJP's focus on Jat and Dalit votes, are expected to contribute to the party's success.

Conclusion

The Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh in 2019 are set to be a crucial battleground for the BJP. With a historical advantage and a strategic alliance with other parties, the BJP is poised to win a significant number of seats. However, the political climate and socio-economic factors will play a pivotal role in determining the final outcome. While predictions are based on current trends, the elections are ultimately influenced by the voters' choices and political actions of the contenders.