Can a Trade Deal be Reached Between Britain and the EU Post-Brexit?
The post-Brexit era has brought unprecedented challenges to the UK-EU relationship, particularly in securing a favorable trade deal. The path forward is fraught with complexities and uncertainties. Yet, hope remains as negotiations continue between the two parties.
Theoretical Perspective: An Achievable Goal?
To put the trade deal in perspective, many experts suggest that the best outcome for the UK, given its membership status, would only be realized in 2182. However, while a better deal is achievable, achieving it would require centuries of negotiation. Despite this, the pursuit remains worthwhile, considering the cumulative annual losses in GDP from Brexit.
Trade Deal Negotiation Dynamics
Even with the ambitious timeline, the foundation for a successful trade deal is evident. Negotiations are primarily centered around a Partnership Agreement, which involves trade services and security cooperation. There is no legal time limit for these negotiations, allowing for flexibility and prolonged discussions until a mutually beneficial agreement is reached.
The European Union (EU), comprising 27 member states, has a more intricate process when it comes to ratifying such agreements. As mentioned by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the path to an agreement may be narrow but is still present. During their address to the European Parliament, she highlighted the recent positive developments in negotiations.
Complexity and Ratification
The Partnership Agreement cannot enter into legal force without the European Parliament's ratification. This presents a formidable challenge as the relationship between the Commission and the Parliament has had occasional political tensions. The temporary provisional application of the agreement until its ratification is a common practice, as illustrated by the Canada-EU CETA deal, which was provisionally applied in 2017 but remains unratified to this day.
Given this, it is crucial to understand the stages involved in ratification. The UK government's acceptance of the principle of a level playing field could shift the negotiation landscape significantly. According to reports, if true, this acceptance transforms the possibility of a deal from "not a chance" to "likely." However, even if a deal is agreed upon, implementing it poses an additional challenge due to the imminent need to apply temporary provisional arrangements. This is because there is insufficient time to finalize the ratification process before January—possibly ending the year with a temporary no-deal Brexit scenario.
Conclusion
The possibility of a trade deal between Britain and the EU remains uncertain but not impossible. As negotiations continue, both parties must navigate the complex legal processes, including ratification by the European Parliament. The acceptance of key principles such as a level playing field could pave the way for a successful agreement, but the road ahead is still long and filled with uncertainties.