Could Hillary Clinton Beat President Trump in 2020: Unlikely or Possible?

The 2020 election presented a complex political landscape. While some believed in the possibility of Hillary Clinton regaining the presidency, the prevailing sentiment was that she would not succeed in beating then-President Trump. This belief was grounded in multiple factors including the electoral dynamics, public opinion, and practical considerations.

Political Dynamics and Public Sentiment

There is no law of physics that definitively prevents Hillary Clinton from winning the 2020 election. However, the political climate since the 2016 election made it highly improbable. The 2016 results left a significant gap in public sentiment that was unlikely to be bridged by Clinton's candidacy. Additionally, Clinton's past political achievements, such as her win in the 2008 Democratic primary and her Senate seat, did not guarantee success in a presidential campaign.

It was widely acknowledged that Clinton was not running in 2020. Her disappointment, frustration, and anger over losing the 2016 election made it clear that she was not a candidate for the 2020 presidency. Even if she had decided to run, public opinion polls and historical voting patterns indicated that she would struggle to secure enough votes to win.

Practical Considerations: Ballot Substitution and Legal Challenges

While many doubted the practicality of Clinton's candidacy, some suggested that emergency changes or the ignoring of state laws could potentially alter the outcome. In the U.S., most states have set deadlines for declaring candidacy, typically 90 days before the primary election. For example, as of the date in question, most states had already passed these deadlines.

However, some states do have provisions to substitute a non-filed nominee at the convention, if the party so decides. This would require a significant shift in party leadership, which was not anticipated. Historical precedence includes instances where partisan election officials have ignored laws to benefit their party, as seen with Donald Trump during the 2016 election in Ohio and the Broward County, Florida election official, Brenda Snipes, who faced controversy for her actions.

Examples like these demonstrate how the electoral process can be manipulated. In the same vein, if enough political resistance and party realignment occurred, it might be possible, albeit highly unlikely, for Clinton to become the nominee. However, this would also require ignoring established state election laws, a fertile ground for legal challenges and public scrutiny.

Given the complexity and the numerous challenges involved, the probability of Clinton beating President Trump in 2020 is, by most accounts, improbable. The political dynamics, public sentiment, and practical considerations all align against this scenario. Nevertheless, the domain of politics remains full of surprises, and as long as the election process is not entirely transparent and free from manipulation, the realm of possibilities remains vast.