Could William Howard Taft Have Won a Second Term if Teddy Roosevelt Did Not Run in 1912?
In 1908, William Howard Taft emerged victorious over the Democratic candidate, William Jennings Bryan, with 51.6% of the popular vote, defeating Bryan's 43.6%. This victory laid the foundation for Taft's presidency, which would later be challenged in the 1912 election. A pivotal factor in that election was the involvement of Teddy Roosevelt, who decided to run as a third-party candidate under the Progressive Party, or the 'Bull Moose' ticket.
Consequences of Roosevelt's Decision
When Roosevelt chose to run in 1912, the political landscape changed dramatically. If Roosevelt had not entered the race, Taft would have faced a much easier re-election. In the 1912 election, Taft's votes (23.2%) combined with Roosevelt's (27.4%) would have given him a 50.6% majority, compared to Wilson's 41.9% (435 electoral votes). This hypothetical scenario might have seen Taft regaining his position as the President with a clear majority.
Wilson's Surprising Victory
However, rather than Taft winning, Woodrow Wilson emerged as the winner of the 1912 election, securing 40 states and 435 electoral votes. This outcome allowed Wilson to take the presidency. Without Roosevelt's involvement, it’s likely Taft might have won the election with a significant majority, especially considering the positive reception Taft received in the first election.
Historical Context and Analysis
Historian Doris Kearns Goodwin's book The Bully Pulpit illuminates that although Roosevelt was immensely popular, he was also experiencing some political fatigue. Many Americans found his frenetic campaign style and intensity to be overwhelming. In the 1912 election, Wilson won 42% of the popular vote, Roosevelt won 27%, and Taft 23%. If Roosevelt had not been a factor, Taft might have captured a substantial portion of Roosevelt's votes, leading to his win. Nevertheless, the influence of progressive reform and intellectual trends significantly favored Wilson.
During this period, many progressive Republicans supported Wilson, which played a key role in his victory. While it's conceivable that all of Roosevelt's supporters would have chosen Taft, many would have remained loyal to the progressive cause. This suggests that Roosevelt's third-party run drew votes from both Republicans and Democrats who shared his progressive ideals.
Possible Scenarios and Alternative Outcomes
It's theorized that if Roosevelt had won the Republican primary and went on to directly challenge Wilson in the general election, he might have won. However, Taft, known for his unpopularity among his own party members, would have struggled to secure a second term.
When considering the hypothetical scenario where Roosevelt did not run, it's arguable that Taft would have had a better chance of winning. His first-term popularity and the split in the Republican vote, due to Roosevelt's candidacy, would have likely worked in Taft's favor. Yet, Roosevelt's influence and his deep connections with the electorate were significant, making it difficult to predict an alternative outcome with complete certainty.
The election of 1912 was marked by complex political dynamics and shifting allegiances, ultimately leading to Wilson's surprising victory. While Taft's re-election might have seemed likely, the reality of Roosevelt's third-party run highlighted the intricate nature of presidential politics and the unpredictable outcomes of such significant events.