Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Influence Biden's Election Victory in 2020?

The 2020 United States presidential election remains a subject of intense scrutiny and debate. One of the key factors that continues to be discussed is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the outcome of the election. This article delves into various scenarios and provides insights into the role that the pandemic may have played in helping Joe Biden defeat President Donald Trump.

Impact of the Pandemic on Polling Trends

It is widely believed that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly influenced the 2020 election results. During the height of the outbreak, Donald Trump's poll numbers took a nosedive, likely costing him millions of votes. This can be attributed to the fact that in times of crisis, the public often blames the sitting president, regardless of the specific policies or actions taken.

Historically, good economic times typically benefit the incumbent, but Trump's economic policies were met with mixed reviews. While certain economic indicators looked promising, they were not translating into gains for most Americans. Moreover, Trump's management of the pandemic undermined his economic narrative, leading to a seesaw in public opinion.

Political Backdrop: Appointment of Supreme Court Judges and Party Loyalty

Before delving into the pandemic's role, it is essential to note the political context. Upon appointing three Supreme Court justices, the Republican party had a significant advantage. However, Trump's unpredictable behavior and divisive rhetoric put him at odds with the party, significantly impacting his re-election prospects.

Trump's pandemic response was another crucial factor. His handling of the virus was largely seen as incompetent, further eroding his public support. Despite this, some aspects of his economic and foreign policies continued to appeal to a portion of the electorate.

Three Scenarios of Potential Impact

Let’s explore three hypothetical scenarios to understand the potential impact of the pandemic on the election results:

Scenario 1: No Pandemic at All

While this scenario is purely theoretical, it highlights the economic factors that were already at play. Without the pandemic, Trump could have tried to run on the economic recovery he called "Super Awesome." However, as economic gains were not reaching the majority of Americans, this narrative struggled to resonate beyond his base. Trump’s approach to the economy, involving stimulus measures, was seen as an effort to counter the impending recession rather than a successful economic strategy.

Scenario 2: Trump Follows the Obama Playbook

Had Trump taken a more responsible approach to the pandemic, similar to what Obama did during previous crises, the election outcome might have been different. By acknowledging the problem, implementing masking guidelines, and supporting experts, Trump could have maintained his positive image and potentially improved his poll numbers. This would have made it easier to win the election, but it may have also made him seem somewhat less presidential and more like a follower rather than a leader.

Scenario 3: The Real 2020 Election Outcome

The reality is that Trump's response to the pandemic was deeply flawed. His reluctance to take decisive actions and his continued attacks on experts and governments created a vacuum of leadership. In the midst of this chaos, governors like New York’s Andrew Cuomo, who were handling the crisis more effectively, gained significant public approval. Americans turned to Biden, craving a figure who embodied basic decency and competence.

While the pandemic was not the sole determinant, it certainly heightened the stakes. It gave Biden a platform to appeal to Americans demanding better leadership. Even if Trump had managed to maintain a strong economic narrative, his incompetence in managing the pandemic would have been a crucial factor in eroding his support.

It is clear that the COVID-19 pandemic played a critical role in shaping the election. While it did not seal the deal for Biden outright, it did present a situation that facilitated his victory by highlighting the failings of the existing administration.