How an Unsuccessful Referendum for FYROM Affects Balkan Stability
On the brink of a significant referendum, the fate of FYROM (Republic of North Macedonia) within the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) hangs in the balance. The potential failure of this referendum not only jeopardizes the nation's EU aspirations but also raises concerns over the stability of the Balkan region, particularly for the impatient Albanian population, and the prospects for broader regional peace.
The Impact on FYROM's NATO and EU Membership Prospects
The upcoming referendum on September 30, 2018, is crucial for FYROM's future within both NATO and the EU. An unsuccessful outcome will likely stall the nation's bid to improve its geopolitical landscape, particularly in response to the Greek blockade. This freeze in progress could have dire consequences for FYROM's membership prospects, as Greece has consistently blocked its entry into both organizations due to name and territorial disputes.
Montenegro’s Fortunes and the Balkan Alliance Dynamics
Montenegro's journey towards NATO and EU membership is starkly different. Unlike FYROM, Montenegro managed to overcome obstacles and successfully embrace its Euro-Atlantic path through a referendum in 2006. This path, however, was not without its costs; the annihilation of the Murino Strikes in 1999 during NATO’s bombing of Yugoslavia serves as a poignant reminder of the sacrifices and scarring left behind. Montenegro's desire to join the EU is driven by the hope of attracting European tourists and emulating Croatia's success.
The Complexities in FYROM
FYROM's political landscape is significantly more complex. The existing socio-political blocs in the country have diverse and often conflicting interests. The VMRO-DPMNE, a nationalist bloc, represents ethnic Slavs and is known for its "antiquisation" policies, which aim to claim Greek historical heritage. This stance is in direct opposition to the bloc's aim of joining NATO and the EU, creating a paradoxical situation. The socio-democrats, who favor an European and Atlanticist path, are seeking to abandon antiquisation policies and therefore collaborate with Albanian parties in the current coalition government to secure their legislative majority.
Implications for Stability and Demography
An unsuccessful referendum could significantly destabilize the region. The demographic divide between ethnic Albanians and Makedonijans (Macedonians) is a critical factor. The Albanian population in FYROM is estimated to be over 30%, giving them a considerable say in the political game. Should the referendum not pass, the Albanians may demand increased integration with organizations that would afford them more influence, potentially leading to the creation of an "Albanian arbitrated state," and ultimately, an "Albanian-controlled state." This shift could be accelerated by the ethnic demographical disparity and political pressure.
The Scenario for Balkan Region
The stability of the Balkans is in jeopardy if FYROM cannot successfully negotiate its path towards EU and NATO membership. The only feasible future, according to some analysts, is for FYROM to either successfully navigate the referendum and come under the tutelage of Brussels, Frankfurt, and Washington, or alternatively, cede its North-Western territories to return to a more stable ethnic balance. This would ensure that the Makedonijan Slavs maintain an ethnic majority and have more freedom in their foreign policy and possibly a closer relationship with Bulgaria.
Conclusion
The impending referendum in FYROM is not just a domestic issue; it has far-reaching implications for the Balkan region's stability. The outcome will not only determine the future of FYROM but also impact the geopolitical dynamics and ethnic balances in the area. As the world watches, the fate of these nations remains uncertain, but the lessons from Montenegro and the complexities of FYROM's political landscape provide valuable insights into the challenges and possibilities.