If McKinley Had Not Fallen: Would TR Have Chosen the Presidency Over Vice-Presidency?

There was a saying of the time that went, 'There were once two bright and talented men. One decided to explore the darkest parts of Africa. The other became vice-president of the US. Neither was ever heard of again.' This sentiment captured the essence of Theodore Roosevelt's position as Vice-President in 1900. Would he have wanted to run for president later on if President McKinley had not been assassinated?

The Imminent End of McKinley's Presidency

If Theodore Roosevelt had not ascended to the presidency, his political career would have fizzled as McKinley did. No vice president since Martin Van Buren had gone on to become president when the incumbent lived out their entire term, and the next such instance wouldn't even occur for over six decades, when Richard Nixon succeeded Eisenhower. Further, Van Buren had the backing of a strong president, whereas Theodore Roosevelt would have faced opposition from the dominant conservative, pro-big business wing of the Republican Party.

The GOP's Position and Roosevelt's Ambition

He almost certainly would have wanted to run for president, but the dominant conservative and pro-big business faction of the Republican Party might not have allowed Theodore Roosevelt, a progressive pro-consumer candidate, to secure the presidential nomination. His position as a war hero on the 1900 Republican ticket was meant to keep him politically incapacitated as vice president, but his unexpected rise to the presidency was a significant setback for his political handlers.

Roosevelt's Political Longings

Undoubtedly, Theodore Roosevelt was highly ambitious, energetic, and filled with ideas. The historical precedent for vice presidents who had any political support sought the presidency as soon as their predecessor was preparing to retire or was constitutionally required to vacate the office. This trend suggests that Teddy would have run for president. Moreover, his formidable energy and ambitious nature made it highly likely that he would have won the nomination and the election.

Conclusion

Had President McKinley not fallen to assassination, Theodore Roosevelt's political career might have taken a dramatically different course, but his strong ambition and the historical trends suggest that he would have wanted and likely would have succeeded in running for the presidential office.