Is Antarctica's Future Inhabitable as Global Warming Affects Its Climate?

With the current rates of carbon emissions, climate models predict the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet within this century. The implications of such an event are profound, leading to around four meters or 12 feet of global sea level rise and potentially making parts of the Antarctic Peninsula ice-free. While some climate models suggest that the ice sheet’s collapse might be avoided by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the reality is more complex.

Impacts of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse

Should the West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, the region of the Antarctic Peninsula that will become ice-free may provide more land for habitation. As plants have already begun moving in to colonize bare rock or glacial till, it is reasonable to envision areas becoming available for human settlement, similar to today's Greenland or Svalbard. However, East Antarctica's main ice sheet will continue to melt over several millennia, exposing coastal land with a climate similar to Greenland's, unsuitable for most forms of agriculture due to its climate.

Future Climate and Settlement Potential

In the distant future, once the entire ice sheet has melted, an archipelago of land will emerge. The absence of a polar ice cap will result in a much warmer climate. While this scenario might sound attractive, it is important to consider that we are trading our current coastal lands, home to 40% of the world's population, for an uncertain future settlement in the polar regions.

A key resource in the deep South is the South Circumpolar Current, which has kept Antarctica frozen since the Miocene epoch. Scientists like C. Hulbe argue that as long as this current continues, any thaw of the Antarctic ice sheets is unlikely.

Strategic Decision-making on Climate Change

Given these possibilities, it is a poor trade-off to give up such a significant portion of the world's population in exchange for a potential future settlement. It would be wiser to address CO2 pollution immediately and work hard to save our polar ice caps.

Further Reading

For more detailed insights into the future of Antarctica and its ice sheets, refer to the following academic work:

Hulbe, C. (2017). Is ice sheet collapse in West Antarctica unstoppable? Science, 356(6337), 910-911.

The findings in this article highlight the immediate need for global action to mitigate climate change.

Conclusion

As global warming progresses, the future of Antarctica and its potential as a habitable region is becoming increasingly relevant. While the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet may provide some areas for settlement, it raises questions about the long-term sustainability of such settlements and the loss of current coastal regions. The key to a sustainable future lies in our current actions to reduce carbon emissions and protect the Earth's polar ice caps.