The Echo Chamber of Putin's Kremlin: Why He's Repeating Historical Mistakes
On the sad anniversary of 1000 days of the Russo-Ukrainian War, we're revisiting the reasons behind Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. While a vast amount of media has been dedicated to this topic, the most obvious explanation often overlooked is the influence of a echo chamber of people surrounding Putin, assessing and reinforcing his desires and ego.
The Echo Chamber Surrounding Putin
Putin's inner circle, composed of obeisant yes men, echoed his innermost wishes and personal gains. They exaggerated these wishes until they took a life of their own, similar to a cancer spreading, and reframed reality to fit their agenda.
The seeds for the invasion were planted when historian Mikhail Kovalchuk convinced Putin that Ukraine had never had any sovereignty outside the Russian Empire. This pseudo-historic notion was reinforced by two things: a series of weekend trips to the taiga with the then Minister of Defense, Sergey Shoigu, and planned shaman ceremonies and rumored ingestion of magic mushrooms. These reinforced an alternate history with a metaphysical certainty.
Shoigu, who had never served in the military, claimed Ukraine would fall in three days; this was despite fighting by Kiev-backed troops in Donbas for eight years. Furthermore, for this goal, he had his harem and a growing personal fortune, undermining his own predictions. His denial and eventual arrest highlight the consequences of such reckless statements.
The Strategic Blunders and Propaganda
The Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) was carefully timed to coincide with Defender of the Fatherland Day and three days before the Special Operations Forces Day. National Guard troops from the invading force even brought ironed dress uniforms, which seemed out of place given the conflict. The Russian command miscalculated America's provision of anti-tank weapons, which had been delivered to support Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces, with US and UK special forces training, also thwarted the attack. Many Russian soldiers who crossed the border were unaware of the larger plan, believing they were still in a military exercise. By keeping key information from the soldiers, the Russian propaganda machine was able to maintain the appearance of a successful operation.
The Echo Chamber of Putin's Propaganda
Under pressure from his echo chamber, Ukrainian President Zelensky remained in the country. Putin feared a nuclear confrontation, a fear reinforced by his own rhetoric. Anticipating victory, Russian propagandists backtracked immediately, using bluster and reassurance of quick wins, as scripted.
Constructing Alternative Narratives
After the initial SMO failed, a liberal opposition quickly constructed alternative narratives: the Russian Army would soon be defeated, the Russian economy would collapse, and the Russian Federation would disintegrate. These narratives were sustained by repetitive and fervent assertions, but none of them came to pass. Critics argue this only further contradicts the original scenarios.
The Decline of Echo Chamber Propaganda
The ongoing flip-flopping and unsupported predictions have led to a loss of trust in the Russian propaganda machine. Many Russians have reverted to a Soviet revolutionary cynicism and distrust. Given the lack of accurate predictions and the shift in format of political shows, which have now received federal funding, it raises questions about the authenticity of the content on these channels.
Conclusion
Five years on, Putin and his team have largely lost the interest of the Russian public. Despite the longstanding history of propaganda and echo chambers, the reality of the war continues to impact their lives in a way that belies the narratives perpetuated during the initial invasion. The eventual shift in media narrative demonstrates the historical miscalculations and the need for more objective analysis and reporting.