The End of the Russian-Ukrainian War: Peace or Protracted Conflict?
Consider this scenario: a war ends, and by definition, peace follows. However, the peace could be cold, barely a ceasefire, overshadowed by the toll of conflict. The situation in Ukraine today is a testament to this complex reality.
Typical Outcomes of Wars
The majority of wars conclude with peace treaties or ceasefires. Yet, the duration and terms of these agreements are dictated by the opposing sides, whose continued willingness to engage in combat hinges on several factors. For Russia's involvement in Ukraine, the end of the conflict seems inevitable but far from imminent.
President Putin's strategy implies an extended war, as it would mean his tenure in power comes to an end if Russia eventually loses. This is a critical aspect of the conflict, where the stakes are extremely high. The standstill in peace talks and the continuation of hostilities are driven by Putin's desire to maintain control and prevent demotion.
Putin’s Gamble
Russia's approach to the conflict is characterized by relentless aggression and the reluctance to engage in meaningful negotiations. Despite setbacks and failures, they continue to target civilians, including children and the elderly, rather than confronting the fighting forces directly. This strategy, which relies on relentless bombings from distant positions, aims to instill fear and weaken the Ukrainian resolve.
Russian leaders and the population seem to thrive on the misery and casualties, symbolizing a resolve to persevere through continued conflict. The pain and loss inflicted on civilians are part of their overall strategy to prolong the war and maintain leverage.
Alternatives to War?
One of the fundamental definitions of peace is the absence of war. Therefore, a war ending should result in peace. However, the end of the war in Ukraine does not guarantee a peaceful transition. Diplomatic agreements and political victories are more likely outcomes.
While some wars have indeed ended with peace treaties that lasted, Europe's historical patterns suggest otherwise. Since the Middle Ages, wars in Europe have typically concluded with disciplined forces ceasing combat. Unfortunately, this is not the case in Ukraine.
President Putin's actions, such as the brutal annexation of Ukrainian territories and continued military operations, ensure that the situation will not be resolved through peaceful means. The international community's failure to provide clear and decisive support further exacerbates the likelihood of prolonged conflict.
Conclusion
Ironically, a war ceasing to exist means peace—but only if it ends in a way that allows both parties to move forward. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict appears unlikely to conclude in a peaceful resolution. Putin's gambit to prolong the conflict for political gain is a significant factor in the ongoing suffering and uncertainty of the people involved.
The bloody nature of this war underscores the urgency for the international community to provide strong support for Ukraine to combat President Putin's aggressive tactics. It also highlights the importance of diplomatic efforts to find a lasting peace.