Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha Election 2019: BJP's Expected Performance and Key Factors
Uttar Pradesh (UP), India's most populous state, often sets the tone for the national political scenario during general elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its leader, Yogi Adityanath, continue to be significant figures in predicting the electoral outcome in the state. This article explores the expected performance of BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and delves into the key factors that may influence the results.
Historical Context and Past Performance
The electoral dynamics in UP have seen significant shifts over the years, primarily driven by factors such as religion, caste, and regional sentiments. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP managed to secure 71 seats, outperforming its competitors and bringing in a total of 80 seats for the party. This performance was largely attributed to the religious polarization and the Ram Mandir factor, combined with the active support of the Sangh Parivar organizations like RSS, VHP, and Bajrang Dal.
Voting Patterns and Key Constituents
UP's voting pattern is influenced by multiple factors, including religion, caste, and region. Here is a breakdown of the key constituents:
Hindu Votes
Hindu votes have traditionally played a critical role in UP politics. In 2014, BJP managed to rally upper-class Hindu, JAT, and even some Dalit votes, particularly in Western UP. The RAM MANDIR factor further polarized Hindu votes, leading to a substantial win for BJP.
Muslim Votes
Post-2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, which occurred just 8 months before the 2014 elections, significantly impacted Muslim votes in UP. While SP and BSP had Muslim support, the riots played a crucial role in shifting predominantly Muslim votes towards BJP. BJP’s focused campaigning on Shia Muslim votes, led by leaders like Shah Nawaz Hussein and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, further strengthened their position in East UP.
Dalit Votes
The Dalit vote bank has historically been divided among multiple parties. In 2014, a significant portion of Dalit votes supported the Congress Party, but there was a shift towards BJP due to its addressing of caste and socio-economic issues.
Key Factors for 2019
The 2019 Lok Sabha elections in UP are likely to be influenced by the following key factors:
Religious Polarization
With no significant Hindu-Muslim riots since 2017, when Yogi Adityanath became Chief Minister, the religious polarization may soften. This could allow BJP to regain some ground that it lost in the 2014 elections.
Campaign Strategies
BJP's campaign strategies will be crucial in 2019. The party needs to maintain a balance between religious appeals and addressing socio-economic issues that are critical for UP's diverse communities.
Performance of Other Coalitions
The performance of the SP-BSP alliance is another key factor. If these parties manage to rebel some candidates, it could lead to a loss of vote share for both SP and BSP. The performance of other parties like INC, RLD, and Apna Dal will also influence the electoral outcome.
Expected Outcome
Given the current political scenario and the key factors mentioned above, it is expected that BJP will secure between 48 to 54 seats in UP. The tally could rise to over 60 if the MODI WAVE phenomenon works again.
Overall, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in UP will be a critical barometer for the nation. The performance of BJP and the dynamics of political alliances will shape the future of Indian politics.