Why Haven't Russia’s Warplanes Defeated Ukraine’s HIMARS Systems?

Ukraine's HIMARS systems are highly praised for their effectiveness, yet Russia has struggled to eliminate them despite their impressive capabilities. This raises a pertinent question: Why haven't Russia's warplanes managed to destroy the HIMARS systems?

Strong Ukrainian Air Defense andlector Washes

One of the primary reasons lies in the robust air defense systems Ukraine has implemented. The Ukrainian Air Force, which includes air defense systems such as MANPADs (Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems), Patriot, HAWK, and NASAMS, has proven to be a significant deterrent against Russian combat aviation.

According to reports, Russia has suffered significant aircraft losses. While the exact number of aircraft lost is disputed—closely estimated around 4000—taking into account various factors such as training, cargo, and tankers, as well as helicopters and border patrols, the actual number of actively engaged combat aircraft might be around 700. Ukraine has reportedly shot down almost half of these remaining aircraft, with many confirmed through photographic evidence.

Russia has chosen to pull its jet fighters out of Crimea and operate its bombers deep behind the front lines due to the high risk of losing aircraft. This strategic decision reflects the inefficiency and incompetence of Russia's air force and navy.

The Mobility of HIMARS Systems

One of the key advantages of the HIMARS (High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System) is its mobility. These systems are capable of firing a few missiles and then moving quickly to a new location. This makes it extremely difficult for Russian warplanes to target and destroy them.

Notably, Russia has succeeded in damaging some HIMARS launchers, but these incidents are often overshadowed in Western media coverage. The effectiveness of the HIMARS systems is not just a matter of their technical capabilities but also their tactical usage by the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian army has been very strategic in deploying and using their HIMARS launchers to ensure they remain undetected.

Slow Russian Kill-Chain and Ineffective Missiles

Another crucial factor is the inefficiency of Russia's kill-chain, the sequence of events allowing Russian ground forces or reconnaissance aircraft to detect a target and attack it with air or ground forces. The time required for Russia to achieve a successful hit is around 24 hours, which is far too long to effectively counter the rapid mobility of HIMARS.

For NATO forces, the kill-chain is much faster, typically around an hour. Even this is too slow to stop the rapid movement of HIMARS systems. Additionally, Russia's cruise missiles lack the accuracy needed for mobile targets, as their effectiveness is generally limited to attacking fixed targets like buildings rather than mobile units.

Conclusion

Ultimately, Russia's struggle to eliminate Ukraine's HIMARS systems stems from a combination of effective Ukrainian air defense, the fast and mobile nature of HIMARS, and the inefficiency of Russia's own air force and kill-chain. These factors contribute to the continued success of HIMARS in the conflict, despite Russia's best efforts.

While Russia has managed to damage some of these systems, the overwhelming success of HIMARS in hitting both military and civilian targets raises questions about the accuracy and ethical use of these weapons, especially when operated by US-operators under the guidance of Ukrainian forces.