Will 2024 Presidential Election Result in a Blowout in the Electoral College?
The idea of the 2024 U.S. presidential election resulting in an electoral college (EC) blowout is often considered unlikely, but it remains a possibility that could significantly impact the outcome.
Conventional Definitions of a Blowout
To start, let's define a term that implies a significant advantage. A landslide victory for a candidate is typically characterized by a wide gap between the winning and losing candidate's electoral vote totals. For instance, Donald Trump in the 2016 election claimed his victory was a landslide, yet he only received 304 electoral votes. In contrast, Joe Biden's victory in 2020 was also marked by a narrow win, as both candidates had the same number of electoral votes at 306 each.
Scenarios for an Electoral College Blowout
While a blowout in the EC is highly improbable, it is more probable than what current polls suggest. Three months before the election, we are witnessing a contest that barely moved despite intense campaigning and efforts by both candidates. This is atypical for a typical electoral race, where the count often fluctuates as mistakes are exploited by the opposing side or as voter gaps are narrowed.
This static scenario argues for a closer than expected EC race. But there are additional factors that contribute to the possibility of a blowout:
Poll Response Rates and Their Impact
One significant difference from past elections is the dramatic drop in poll response rates. Ten years ago, reaching a 30% response rate was considered poor; four years ago, this was average. Now, the norm is around 3%, and pollsters are being recognized for survey participation. Polls are only a snapshot of people who choose to answer them, which means they do not provide an accurate real-time view of the electorate.
The key issue lies in the potential for bias in polling. If certain demographics, such as Kamala Harris supporters, are underpolled, the overall results could err towards the other candidate, in this case, Donald Trump. Similarly, if there are significant numbers of voters who intend to support Kamala Harris but are not included in the polls, the outcome could shift in her favor.
Social Demographics and Polling Effects
Younger millennials and Generation Z are a wildcard in this scenario. Indications suggest a strong inclination towards Kamala Harris. On the other hand, there could be many Trump voters who do not participate in polls, potentially leading to an overperformance of the incumbent if we see a significant systemic error of 3% or more. A 5% error could result in a blowout, while a 4% error would likely lead to a more decisive win for Kamala Harris.
The 2012 election serves as a relevant comparison. Despite polls showing a 4% difference, Barack Obama received more actual electoral votes than predicted. Similarly, characteristics of Kamala Harris, such as her policy alignment with Barack Obama's initiatives, make a comparable underpolling scenario plausible.
Conclusion and Fingers Crossed
In conclusion, while a blowout in the EC is unlikely, the current polling discrepancies suggest it is more probable than traditional polling methods indicate. The final outcome could tip one way or another based on how accurately these demographics are represented in the voting population. Let's hope for an accurate reflection of the voter sentiment in the upcoming election.